TL;DR — What's Happening Now
- Bitcoin trades at $74,318 — up from the week's low, but still below all key moving averages
- Fear & Greed Index: 28/100 — the territory called «Extreme Fear», unchanged from last week
- CryptoQuant warns of double resistance zone: first hurdle at $75,000, next at $85,000
- Average cost basis for Bitcoin spot ETF holders is around $80,000 — the majority of ETF investors are sitting on unrealized losses
- 30-day moving average is at $68,661, 90-day at $79,815, 200-day at $93,892 — all above current price
What's Driving the Movement
Bitcoin's rally towards the $74,000 level has gained renewed momentum after weeks of consolidation in the lower $60,000 range, but on-chain data paints a picture of a market far from recovered.
According to CryptoQuant analysis published by The Block, two specific levels constitute the most relevant resistance going forward: $75,000 and $85,000. These are not arbitrary numbers — both are anchored in CryptoQuant's realized price methodology, which calculates the average acquisition cost for various investor cohorts.
The ETF cost basis hangs like a heavy hand over the market. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has pointed out that the average holding cost for Bitcoin spot ETFs is approximately $80,000. This means that a large and growing institutional cohort is sitting on unrealized losses and will potentially sell into strength to limit downside. As of February 2026, around 46% of Bitcoin's circulating supply was in unrealized loss — the highest since late 2022, according to CryptoQuant data.
The macro picture offers no tailwind. DXY remains relatively strong, and the Fed has not signaled any imminent pivot. The S&P 500 is trading with volatility after a series of weak macro data, which is pushing risk appetite down. The crypto market still correlates closely with the risk-on/risk-off dynamic in tradfi, and the risk-off regime we are in is not a positive catalyst for a sustainable breakout.
On-chain sentiment is mixed. CryptoQuant's «Apparent Demand Growth» indicator, which tracks shifts in Bitcoin demand, has retreated to negative territory. CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV has described this as part of a «most frustrating phase» — a regime characterized by sideways movement and false breakouts. Long-Term Holder SOPR is falling below 1, indicating that even experienced long-term holders are realizing losses, not gains.
Long-term holder selling has, however, fallen significantly — from a peak of 904,000 BTC in November to around 276,000 BTC, the lowest since June 2025 per CryptoQuant. This reduces immediate selling pressure from a key cohort but does not remove resistance from traders and ETF holders with a higher cost basis.
"Hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital inflows have at times failed to offset persistent selling pressure" — CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju
Key Figures
Altcoin Overview
The risk-off regime affecting Bitcoin hits the altcoin segment doubly hard. With Bitcoin dominance remaining high throughout Q1 2026, little capital is rotating into altcoins.
Ethereum fails to break out of its compression zone. The ETH/BTC ratio is pointing downwards, signaling that capital is still moving towards Bitcoin rather than Ethereum during uncertain periods.
DeFi tokens follow the general risk-off trend. DeFi TVL, which increased by 75% year-over-year to $94.9 billion in 2024, has stabilized without new records in 2026, according to available sector data.
Solana (SOL) and other Layer 1 networks that accounted for much of the momentum in 2024 — Solana reached an all-time high of $263.83 in November 2024 — are trading well below these peaks. Meme-coin volume on Solana, which was a strong driver in 2024, has significantly decreased.
Stablecoins are the quiet winner in a risk-off environment. Total stablecoin market capitalization as of March 2026 is estimated at around $315 billion, with USDT at $183.93 billion (58.3% market share) and USDC at $78.8 billion, according to available market data. Capital rotation into stablecoins is typically a bearish signal for altcoins.
Practical takeaway: In a risk-off regime, altcoin exposure is high-risk positioning. Capital is waiting for Bitcoin to show direction before rotating down the cap curve.
Technical Picture
Bitcoin's technical structure is clear: all momentum points towards a decision in the $75,000–$79,000 zone within the next few days.
Moving averages as resistance: All three key MAs are above price. The 30-day MA at $68,661 has already been broken to the upside — that's positive. But the 90-day MA at $79,815 and the 200-day MA at $93,892 are massive overhead hurdles. Historically, it is very rare for Bitcoin to reverse from bear to bull without reclaiming the 200-day MA.
The $75,000 zone is the first test. CryptoQuant links this resistance to the consolidation range formed after the sharp drop earlier in the quarter. A clean breakout above this level on high volume would be the first technical sign that the bears are losing their grip.
$78,900 is the key level. According to CryptoQuant's analysis, this level represents the intersection with the primary downtrend line. A daily close above $78,900 would potentially signal a structural shift in bias from bearish to neutral.
RSI on the daily chart is approaching overbought from deeply oversold levels. This allows for further upside movement in the short term, but divergence between price and momentum is something to monitor closely if BTC pushes towards the $75,000 zone.
Volume profile shows a significant volume node in the $74,000–$76,000 zone, confirming that this is an area of high activity and potentially tough battle between buyers and sellers.
What to Watch For
FOMC and macro data: The Fed meeting calendar and any new inflation data release from the US in the second half of March will have a direct impact on global risk appetite. A hawkish surprise could send DXY up and crypto down.
$75,000 breakout or rejection: This is the binary event in the short term. A strong rejection at $75,000 with high volume would be a classic bear-flag scenario and increases the likelihood of a retest of $68,000 support. A breakout with volume opens the way towards $78,900.
ETF flows: Daily inflows and outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs are the most relevant capital indicator in this market. Persistent net outflows from ETFs are a clear bearish signal, while a return of net inflows would signal that institutional capital is starting to accumulate again below the $80,000 cost basis.
CryptoQuant Bull Score Index: The index fell to 20/100 in November 2025 — a level associated with deep market stress. A move back above 40 would be a signal that sentiment is structurally turning around.
Options expiry: Keep an eye on large options expiries towards the end of March, which typically create pin risk around round numbers like $75,000 and $70,000.
Levels to monitor:
- Support: $71,500 → $68,000 → $64,000
- Resistance: $75,000 → $78,900 (trendline) → $85,000
- Bull confirmation: Daily close above $79,815 (90-day MA)
Sources: CryptoQuant via The Block, CryptoQuant on-chain research, market data as of March 17, 2026
