TL;DR — What's happening now
- Bitcoin trades at $66,674 — down from the peak of $76,000 set two months ago, and the market still cannot hold above $80,000
- Fear & Greed Index at 9/100 — deepest extreme zone, lower than during many historical bottoms
- MVRV-ratio of 1.32 indicates that the average BTC holder has 32% unrealized gains — a level comparable to the April 2024 ATH peak according to Glassnode data
- Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price acts as hard resistance, preventing meaningful upward repricing
- Entity-Adjusted Realized Profit has collapsed by 96% from its peak — from $3 billion per day to under $100 million, a classic signal of a late bear market phase
What's driving the movement
Bitcoin is in a technical and psychological no man's land. For over two months, the market has tried to reclaim $80,000 — and consistently failed. According to analysis based on Glassnode data, one on-chain variable stands out as the primary culprit: Short-Term Holder Realized Price, a form of “adjusted realized price” that excludes long-term, passive coins, thereby providing a sharper picture of active market participants' cost basis.
STH Realized Price represents the average entry price for investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. When the spot price falls below this level — as it is doing now — the indicator turns from support to resistance. Short-term holders, who are already sitting on unrealized losses, have a strong incentive to sell at any rally towards their cost basis to limit losses. This creates a natural ceiling.
Crypto analyst and CryptoQuant Community Manager Maartunn has highlighted STH Realized Price as “one of the most reliable daily trading indicators,” with a consistent historical role as both support and resistance.
On the macro side, a risk-off positioning amplifies the pressure. The DXY (dollar index) remains strong, which historically correlates negatively with BTC. The market awaits clarity from the FOMC, and the broad sentiment is that liquidity conditions are not favorable enough to drive a meaningful bull run in the short term.
Open interest and funding rates have not been disclosed with exact figures in the available source material for this report, but the dramatic contraction in Entity-Adjusted Realized Profit — down 96% from $3 billion per day (peak) to under $100 million now — indicates that most profitable sellers have already exited the market. This is two-sided: weak buying pressure, but also little left to sell.
The MVRV-ratio of 1.32 suggests that the market is not extremely overvalued. It is actually in line with levels observed in April 2024 around the previous ATH. But in a risk-off context, this means little — MVRV functions best as a top signal, not as a standalone bottom signal.
Altcoin Overview
In a market with Fear & Greed at 9/100, there is little joy to be found in the altcoin segment. Historically, this level is associated with general capital flight from risk assets, and altcoins are the first asset class investors dump.
No single altcoin stands out significantly with positive figures in the available source material for today. The general picture is:
- Ethereum and L2-tokens follow BTC closely downwards — ETH dominance is not sufficient to protect against broader market pressure
- DeFi-tokens underperform; low volume and thin liquidity make them vulnerable to sharp drawdowns
- Meme-coins — typically the first to capitulate in risk-off — show signs of weakness without catalysts
When Fear & Greed hits single digits, it's not about finding winners — it's about avoiding being stuck with losers.
All in all: Beta against BTC is high, and no altcoin narrative is strong enough to break the correlation in this regime.
Technical Picture
BTC is in a compressed trading pattern between $64,000–$68,000 after testing $76,000 two months ago without managing to hold the gains. The technical picture underpins the on-chain-based analysis:
Resistance levels:
- $68,000–$70,000: First meaningful resistance cluster — concentration of STH cost basis and psychological round number
- $74,000: MVRV-based resistance according to Glassnode data — a break above this level requires significant buying pressure
- $76,000: The peak from the last two months — structurally important
- $80,000: The major psychological and technical ceiling the market has failed to reclaim
Support levels:
- $64,000: Nearest critical support — a break here opens up a test of the $58,000 region
- $58,000–$60,000: Deeper support cluster, potentially LTH Realized Price level
RSI: Is in oversold territory on a daily basis, which can trigger technical rebounds — but in strong bear trends, oversold signals are rarely reliable on their own.
MACD: Persistently negative on the daily timeframe, no bullish crossover in sight without a significant volume catalyst.
Volume: Generally low, indicating that neither side — buyers or sellers — has enough conviction to drive the market strongly in one direction. However, low liquidity can amplify moves in both directions.
What to watch for
Upcoming events:
- FOMC communication: Any signal about interest rate changes or liquidity easing could be a catalyst — the market is extremely sensitive to macro shifts in this regime
- Options expiry: Weekly and monthly options expiries on Deribit can create volatile movements around strike prices near $65,000–$70,000
- ETF flows: Daily flow figures from spot Bitcoin ETFs (especially BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC) are now a key indicator — persistent outflows will amplify bearish pressure
Levels to monitor:
- $68,000 on the upside: A daily close above this level with volume would be the first sign that STH resistance is softening
- $74,000: MVRV-based resistance — if BTC breaks above this with strength, the technical picture fundamentally changes
- $64,000 on the downside: Hold this level. If it breaks, re-evaluate all positions
- STH Realized Price (dynamic): Follow daily updates from Glassnode — this level moves and defines short-term risk/reward
- Fear & Greed Index: Historically, extreme zones below 15/100 have been associated with proximity to bottoms, but timing is notoriously difficult. Use as context, not as a standalone trigger
> [PULLQUOTE] Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has historically only three times broken above STH, LTH, and aggregate Realized Price simultaneously — and each time it marked the end of a bear market phase. We are not there yet. [/PULLQUOTE ]
The bottom line is clear: the market is in extreme risk-off mode, on-chain resistance is real and documented, and catalysts for a meaningful repricing are currently absent. Trade defensively.
