TL;DR
- Chainalysis estimates that adjusted stablecoin volume could reach $719 trillion by 2035 based on organic growth
- Under a more optimistic scenario with generational wealth transfer and broad merchant adoption, the figure could rise to $1.5 quadrillion
- Visa, Stripe, and Mastercard have all made strategic moves to secure their position in the stablecoin payment infrastructure
- Stablecoin volume reached $28 trillion in real economic activity in 2025, with a CAGR of 133% since 2023
Giants Adapt – Not Experiment
The discussion about stablecoins in payments has long revolved around a single question: will ordinary consumers ever choose a crypto wallet over a bank card at the checkout? Major payment companies are now responding with action rather than words.
According to CryptoSlate, Visa has initiated settlements in USDC, Stripe acquired the payment infrastructure company Bridge, and Mastercard is in the process of acquiring BVNK. The movements are coordinated in pattern, though separate in strategy: all point towards a future where stablecoins are the very plumbing of global money transfers – not a niche alternative.
Stablecoin adoption is no longer about either/or at the checkout – it's about which infrastructure wins beneath the surface.
What Chainalysis Actually Calculated
The figures circulating in the market stem from a report Chainalysis published around April 8, 2026. The company uses the term “adjusted stablecoin volume” – a measure that attempts to filter out noise such as liquidity provisioning, bot activity, and MEV transactions, to arrive at activity that actually represents payments, remittances, and settlements.
With this methodology, Chainalysis identified real economic activity of $28 trillion in 2025, up with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 133% since 2023. If this growth rate persists without additional catalysts, the model points towards $719 trillion by 2035.
It is worth emphasizing that this is a projection based on historical growth rate – not a guaranteed development. The stablecoin market is still young, regulatory uncertain, and highly exposed to macroeconomic shocks.
The Aggressive Scenario: $1.5 Quadrillion
Chainalysis also presents a more expansive scenario that requires two major catalysts:
1. Generational Wealth Transfer
Between 2028 and 2048, approximately $100 trillion is expected to be transferred from Baby Boomers to Millennials and Gen Z. These generations have a far higher propensity to use crypto as a primary tool in personal finance. Chainalysis estimates that this wealth shift alone could add $508 trillion in annual stablecoin transaction volume by 2035.
2. Broad Infrastructure Adoption at Point of Sale
The second scenario assumes that stablecoins gradually replace traditional payment networks and become standard infrastructure for merchants. The idea is that paying with crypto ceases to be a conscious choice and instead becomes an invisible routine operation – just as credit cards replaced cash.
Under this accelerated scenario, Chainalysis estimates that stablecoin volumes could match Visa and Mastercard's combined off-chain transaction volume somewhere between 2031 and 2039.
What the Numbers Don't Tell
Although the growth figures are impressive, they should be read with a critical eye. Chainalysis has an interest in highlighting the crypto market's potential – that is the core of the company's business model. The adjusted volume is also a constructed measure: what is included and excluded is a methodological choice that significantly affects the final figure.
Moreover, the macro picture in April 2026 is turbulent. Bitcoin trades around $72,400 with an extremely low fear-and-greed index of 14 out of 100, signaling significant risk aversion in the market. In such a climate, projections based on a 133% CAGR are particularly vulnerable to corrections.
Infrastructure First – User Experience Later
What is clear from the companies' actions is that Visa, Stripe, and Mastercard are not waiting for consumers to actively demand stablecoin payments. They are building the infrastructure now, with the logic that demand will come when the technology operates behind the scenes and is indistinguishable from traditional payments.
This strategy – to own the plumbing, not necessarily the brand – is probably the most important lens for understanding what the Chainalysis report actually communicates: stablecoins are becoming boring infrastructure, and that's where the money is.
